An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

会计信息质量的非线性模型对公司价值的影响

从时代性、行业性及人力资源价值等方面分析了非线性因素对会计信息质量的影响,认为高质量的会计信息应该反映公司价值,并尝试建立了一个非线性模型,据此大体测算公司价值。     

浅谈高压中速磨粉系统在磷酸二铵生产中的应用

通过对磷酸二铵生产造粒特性分析,高压中速磨粉机原理分析,结合实践生产中的工艺需求,利用高压中速磨粉系统将颗粒状不合格品磨成细粉后添加进系统重新喷浆造粒,提高返料添加量,减少不合格品的产生,腾空仓库有限货位,以获取更大的经济价值。     

On the approximation of the canard explosion point in singularly perturbed systems without an explicit small parameter

A canard explosion is the dramatic change of period and amplitude of a limit cycle of a system of nonlinear ODEs in a very narrow interval of the bifurcation parameter. It occurs in slow–fast systems and is well understood in singular perturbation problems where a small parameter epsilon defines the time-scale separation. We present an iterative algorithm for the determination of the canard explosion point which can be applied for a general slow–fast system without an explicit small parameter. We also present assumptions under which the algorithm gives accurate estimates of the canard explosion point. Finally, we apply the algorithm to the van der Pol equations, a Templator model for a self-replicating system and a model for intracellular calcium oscillations with no explicit small parameters and obtain very good agreement with results from numerical simulations.     

Mapping gender and marital roles on customer delight by value perception for mobile technology in India

The Indian telephony industry is a diverse platform for product and service in customer value perception. The present study organizes and synthesizes the varied research streams for developing a customer value delight (CVD) framework for marketing decisions like segmentation and targeting. The conceptual framework is developed by using ten-value predictor variables and customer delight through divergent viewpoints identified from previous studies. The significance of the segregation proposition is tested through discriminant analysis in three different dimension runs i.e. delight, gender, and marital category. The scholarship behind the study provides insight into an imperative issue of segregating customer delight by perceived value predictors in categories. The perceptual mapping and vector magnitude analysis of value predictors were performed to club customers in two categories of Mid-Town (low/moderate delight) and Extremes (high delight). The analysis rigorously supports the discriminating power of perceived price, perceived benefit, and self-congruity. The salience of study unlocks psychographic and demographic perceptual maps of customer delight with its perceived value predictors for strategic and tactful planning in the mobile industry.     

具有外套管的释热元件表面温度求解

为进行具有外套管的释热元件的性能分析，需准确计算元件包壳外侧的温度分布。由于套管结构内外均存在流体，传热情况较为复杂，因此本文基于传热基本方程和能量守恒关系，设计开发了专用的迭代算法和计算程序求解该结构温度分布，并采用典型算例，将计算结果与Fluent软件仿真结果进行对比。结果表明，本文程序计算结果与Fluent软件仿真结果的相对误差小于5%。基于本算法编写的程序模块与燃料元件性能分析程序相耦合，可提高燃料性能分析流程的独立性。     

Optimal design of Raman fibre amplifier based on terminal value optimization strategy and shuffled frog leaping algorithm

This paper introduces an evolutionary algorithm, Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm (SFLA), to solve the optimization problem in designing the multi-pumped Raman Fibre Amplifier (RFA). SFLA is a powerful optimizer tool because of its efficient mathematical expressions and global search capability. We utilize SFLA to determine the optimal pump wavelengths and pump powers by minimizing the gain ripple of RFA. To accelerate calculations, a terminal value optimization strategy (TVOS) is incorporated into the evolution of SFLA. This proposed strategy takes the terminal power values of pumps as the decision variables in optimization. Then, the optimal original power values of the pumps are obtained by solving the Power Coupled Equations once, without using the traditional method of repetitive guesses.The combination of SFLA and TVOS enhances the efficiency of optimization and accelerates calculation, while satisfying the design requirements of RFA.The simulation results show that nearly 65% of computational time has been saved compared with the traditional average power analysis. The 4-pumped C+L band of backward multi-pumped RFA with the average net gain of 0 dB, 1 dB and 2 dB are designed individually, where the gain ripple is less than 0.64 dB. The combination of SFLA and TVOS enhance the optimization efficiency and improve the performance of RFA with good gain profile.     

基于多层感知器的气液两相流流型识别方法

通过对电阻层析成像数据采集原理和深度学习网络的研究,提出了一种基于阵列电阻值和多层感知器深度学习网络相结合的流型识别方法。利用电阻层析成像系统中的16个电极传感器来获取流型样本数据,并构建出流型识别数据库,然后对多层感知器深度学习网络进行训练,获得可以识别不同流型的网络。实验结果表明,采用阵列电阻值结合多层感知器网络对流型进行学习和识别的方法,流型识别准确率可以达到95%,解决了流型图像生成过程与数据特征预选过程中流型特征损失的问题,流型识别性能得到了提高。     

What drives smartwatch purchase intention? Perspectives from hardware,software, design,and value

Although wearable devices are popular in recent years, the market share of smartwatches is relatively low. The main goal of this research is to investigate the antecedents of the intention to purchase a smartwatch. This research develops a conceptual model and hypotheses based on the theory of reasoned action and perceived values from the perspectives of software, hardware, and aesthetic design. An online questionnaire was developed and distributed on popular websites to collect data, and 260 usable responses are collected from the potential users of the Apple Watch in Taiwan. The thirteen hypotheses were validated by using partial least squares (PLS) techniques. Among the antecedents of purchase intention in the model, the attitude towards using smartwatches was found to have the strongest direct effect. Among the factors of the attitude, design aesthetics have the most significant effect. The results also show that all of the factors about smartwatch attributes directly affected the related perceived values. However, social value and performance/quality value did not affect the intention. The model demonstrated relatively good explanatory power for purchase intention in the context of smartwatches. The proposed model can provide insights to smartwatch vendors to develop their new products and marketing strategies.     

International Trade

Values of net oil imports(-)/exports for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the United States and Australia. Updated on a monthly basis. Number of imports for Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Other EU-15 (EU-15), Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), and Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, (OECD Asia-Pacific), and Total OECED. Current data for Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Other EU-15 (EU-15), Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand (OECD Asia-Pacific). Updated on a monthly basis. Current data for principal importers of natural gas and the amount in which they import from United States, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Italy, Germany and Spain (Table 19.1). Current data for principal exporters of natural gas and the amount they export to Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Turkmenistan, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia (Table 19.2). Updated on a monthly basis.